When it comes to technology, that's a very long time ago.
Consider that the iPhone was first introduced mid-2007 and the iPad made its debut in 2010.
For this august occasion, I decided to revisit the past, and select the most significant post I wrote from each of the years 2008 through 2013. I targeted posts that ended up accurately predicting the most important tech innovations of the present and near future.
2008: That was easy! Web Secret #32: Web 2.0. In that post, I introduced my audience of mental health professionals to social media. I urged them to:
- understand the concept of web 2.0
- be aware of the numerous web sites and internet platforms that emulate core web 2.0 principles, and their application to their work
- potentially use some of these websites and platforms to enhance their businesses.
2009: Web Secret #67: Everything Is Virtual. In this post I told my audience that an increasingly sophisticated virtual world would lead to an explosion in virtual activity. I talked about the advent of 3-D TV and virtual currencies (Bitcoin anyone?) Everything I predicted has come to pass - already, for the most part, ahead of schedule.
2010: Web Secret #88: the iGeneration. In this post I talked about the Millenial Generation, who are beginning to enter the work force and their unique relationship with technology. I highlighted some of the characteristics of these young people, notably:
- The newest generations will expect an instant response from everyone they communicate with, and won’t have the patience for anything less.
- They will make less of a distinction between their online friends and real friends; virtually socializing might be just as fulfilling as a Friday night party.
- They have relaxed notions about privacy. Information that Boomers and Xers kept under (literal) lock and key is freely shared on Facebook, written on Walls and everywhere else.
- They will never be “off the grid.”
2011: Web Secret #141: Dunbar's Number. In 1992, long before the advent of social media, British anthropologist Robin Dunbar hypothesized that there is a cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. By stable, he meant relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person. Though Dunbar did not assign a precise value to the number, (it lies between 100 and 230), the commonly used value is 150. So 150 is referred to as Dunbar's Number. Well surprise, surprise, on average, most people have 150 Twitter followers, 150 friends on Facebook, etc. And as it turns out, for most professionals, Dunbar's 150 strong ties will do just fine. A handful of key colleagues are usually more instrumental in getting referrals, speaking gigs, or even a new job, than hundreds of random "friends."
2012: Web Secret #196: Disruptive Technology. Simply put, we are living in an era of disruptive technology. "A disruptive technology... is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market and value network... displacing an earlier technology." The classic example is the Ford Model T. The mass-produced automobile was a disruptive innovation, because it changed the transportation market. What's it to you? During the 20th century, the thinking was that disruptive technology would take a few years, maybe even decades to, well, disrupt. But in the 21st century, that is no longer the case. Disruptive technology can happen in a few months, sometimes even faster. As a statement about technology, in a blog written about the impact of technology, this may be the truest post I have ever written.
2013: Web Secret #274: The Power of One. Here are three important facts about the impact of technology on the world we live in:
- It's flat - when it comes to just about everything , the world is increasingly becoming a level playing field, where all participants have an equal opportunity.
- We live in different "time zones" - across our planet some of us are wearing Google Glass while others are plowing their fields with oxen.
- There is less than 5 degrees of separation between any two people on the planet - people can share ideas with only a few jumps to a large portion of the world’s population and with even fewer steps to the entire population of a nation.
In 2016, I will be writing my 400th post.
I'm scared and excited about what will happen between now and then.
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